Scenario: European Renewal

Below you can see our illustration for discussion for the European Renewal scenario (click on this link for a larger image). Each scenario has one of these illustrations (there are links to the other three scenarios at the bottom of this article) visualising the important aspects of each scenario and the differences between them. In combination with the text below, this gives a quick impression of the world that each scenario envisages.

Stakeholder value and connection are central

It is 2040. Globalisation has continued, but its character has radically altered. The time of competition and protectionism is behind us, connection and cooperation are central. Although Europe tries to position itself as a great power between China and the United States by means of a distinctive internal market with a climate neutral and social focus, it regularly loses out on the global playing field. It is not so much countries or governments but rather networks of companies and residents that are more closely connected and jointly seek solutions to achieve prosperity and well-being. They also devote attention to the major social and climatological challenges of the time.

Brussels and citizens reinforce one another…

Europe has successfully responded to the changing zeitgeist and has established the preconditions that are needed. With the European Green Deal, a green industrial policy has been initiated and both citizens and companies are encouraged to become more sustainable. The internal market is still relatively free, but Europe does set strict conditions, with a mandate from its citizens. The market power of large companies is tightly regulated, and strict requirements are set for data processing and digital services. Privacy by design is generally accepted. This offers space for smaller players, experts and collectives to arrange things in their own way. Local authorities are fully involved. Networks are sometimes connected geographically, but just as often they are thematic. Cooperation in Europe is also necessary to ensure resilience to disasters and other external factors. A wide variety of parties, supported by the EU, collaborate in diversified and robust supply chains, with a focus on the reliable availability close to home of important goods, healthcare, and essential services. Banks and pension funds are now investing in demand-driven green companies. The supply-driven, volatile oil market is a thing of the past.

… and together drive innovative, sustainable alternatives

At the same time, Europe stimulates technological progress with an ambitious, mission-driven innovation agenda. These missions are chosen in consultation with the public and therefore focus on major social issues such as energy, raw materials and health. The harmonisation of regulations and the commitment to open data markets accelerate innovation. The internal European borders are open for talent and goods. There is a strong rail and road network linking European cities. Flying is only accepted over distances that are too great to cover quickly enough by train or fossil-free private vehicle. Due to the rapid rise of remote working, education and business, much less travel is necessary.

In this scenario, new technologies are developed by collectives and small players taking an open-source approach. By keeping these open-source goods and services simple and using materials and components that are readily available locally, cost-efficient customisation is possible. Investments are also on a smaller scale and are often made by several parties jointly. The goods and services can be customised through a strong connection with the ultimate user groups. However, implementation on a large scale is difficult and is lagging behind.