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Folder: Scenarios

To indicate the impact of the changing world on the economy of the Amsterdam Metropolitan Area (AMA), we use future scenarios. For the region, we have developed our own scenarios and recently updated them in response to the corona crisis. We also regularly review scenarios developed by others and share insights from them on our Insights website..

Scenarios for the Amsterdam Metropolitan Area

For the Amsterdam Metropolitan Area (AMA), we have four strong scenarios that show what the future of the region might be like in 2040.

What if the region is smart, green and healthy in 2040? What should we be working on now? The AMA scenarios are not predictions or ideal versions of the future, but impressions or possibilities of what the future could be like. The scenarios are an extremely suitable tool for thinking about robust future policy (fitted for all scenarios) and for deepening concrete policy themes that play a role in governments, companies and knowledge institutions. board Insights unlocks knowledge, backgrounds and insights about the MRA scenarios and their concrete applications in practice.

Axes cross based on the economy and on European cooperation

The axes of the MRA scenarios: vertically the axis united/divided Europe and horizontally the axis top down/bottom up.

After research, we came to the conclusion that two themes are very decisive for the internationally oriented economy of the Amsterdam Metropolitan Area. The first theme, on the vertical axis, is whether Europe is becoming increasingly united or divided. The second theme looks at the organization of the economy, on the horizontal axis: is the economy organized top-down, based on market forces and a lot of power for large companies, or bottom-up, with attention to society and sustainability and initiatives by residents, city and region? We have plotted these themes in a cross of axes, as you can see above. The four combinations of themes that you then get, each form an extreme scenario for 2040. A representation of what the world could then look like, in extremis.

Four scenarios for the region in 2040

We then arrive at the following four scenarios, click on the link to view the scenario:

Future Labs by the Board: Working with Scenarios

One of the instruments that the Board uses to investigate the ambitions for the region in a certain area are Future Labs: we analyze a subject together with a number of experts and creative thinkers. The MRA scenarios are often a tool for this.

Visualization of the Board scenario method

The method goes as follows: based on the four MRA scenarios for 2040, we look at a specific subject or a specific ambition. For the Board, the context is always that we are working on a smart, green and healthy Amsterdam Metropolitan Area. With that in mind, we look at the subject in each of the four extreme 2040 scenarios. We ask the question for each scenario: if the future looks like this in 2040, what are the measures we need to take now to be well prepared for it?

Seeking no-regret measures

This gives you a set of measures for each scenario that you should take now. You often see that there is overlap between those measures. A measure that occurs on the basis of each scenario is a so-called ‘ no-regret measure’ that you should take anyway. You can have other measures ready if the future moves more towards one of the four scenarios.
For example, Brexit is a signal of a less united Europe, and we noticed due to the corona crisis that we suddenly got a lot closer to the Local for Local scenario , with little travel and great need for strong local amenities.

read here the full article that provides insight into the future scenarios for the Amsterdam Metropolitan Area in 2040.

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